COT Positioning Report: Week of February 3, 2026

Weekly positioning snapshot for educational purposes. Not financial advice.

Executive Summary

The data shows substantial positioning changes across fixed income markets this week, with Treasury contracts registering the largest absolute adjustments. Large speculators reduced net short positions across the entire yield curve, led by 2-Year Treasury contracts declining 10.55% to -1,347,602 contracts and 30-Year Treasury positions contracting 66.57% to -13,604 contracts. Currency markets displayed divergent behavior, with Australian Dollar positioning increasing 265.49% to net long 26,118 contracts. This establishes the baseline for future tracking of speculative positioning across 41 futures markets.

Top 5 Weekly Position Changes

The largest percentage changes this week occurred across diverse asset classes:

Australian Dollar posted the week's largest percentage shift at +265.49%, bringing net positioning to 26,118 contracts. This represents a substantial rotation toward net long exposure in currency markets.

30-Year Treasury positioning contracted 66.57% to -13,604 contracts, marking the most significant percentage reduction in the bond complex despite representing a smaller absolute position size.

Brazilian Real increased 64.3% to net long 30,962 contracts, contributing to broader strength in emerging market currency positioning.

Nasdaq 100 declined 58.21% to net long 12,068 contracts, representing the sharpest positioning reduction among equity indices.

Coffee C decreased 43.9% to net long 18,364 contracts, registering the largest percentage change within agricultural commodities tracked this week.

Absolute Position Analysis

Largest Net Long Positions:

The data reveals Gold maintaining the largest net long position at 165,604 contracts, representing the most concentrated bullish speculative exposure across all markets tracked. Euro FX follows with net long positioning of 163,361 contracts, indicating substantial long exposure in major currency markets. Crude Oil WTI holds net long 124,565 contracts, marking the energy sector's largest absolute position.

Largest Net Short Positions:

Treasury markets dominate net short positioning in absolute terms. 5-Year Treasury holds the largest net short position at -2,158,980 contracts, representing the most significant concentration of bearish exposure across all tracked markets. 2-Year Treasury shows net short positioning of -1,347,602 contracts, while 10-Year Treasury registers -729,414 contracts. This concentration reveals large speculators maintaining substantial short exposure across the intermediate portion of the yield curve.

Category Breakdown

Fixed Income Markets:

The Treasury complex shows coordinated short positioning across all maturities tracked. The 5-Year maturity holds the largest absolute short position at -2,158,980 contracts, followed by 2-Year at -1,347,602 contracts. All three maturities registered positioning reductions this week, with percentage changes ranging from -0.45% (10Y) to -66.57% (30Y). This pattern indicates large speculators reducing existing short exposure while maintaining overall net short positioning structure.

Currency Markets:

Foreign exchange positioning displays mixed characteristics across the six markets tracked. Australian Dollar (26,118 contracts), Brazilian Real (30,962 contracts), and Euro FX (163,361 contracts) show net long positioning. British Pound registers net short positioning at -13,911 contracts. The divergence between developed and emerging market currencies represents the most notable cross-sectional pattern within FX markets.

Metals Complex:

All three metals tracked show net long positioning: Gold (165,604 contracts), Copper (47,814 contracts), and Platinum (13,106 contracts). Gold's absolute position exceeds copper by 3.5:1 ratio, indicating concentrated positioning preference toward precious metals over industrial metals.

Energy Sector:

Energy markets display uniformly net long positioning: Crude Oil WTI leads at 124,565 contracts, followed by Gasoline RBOB at 76,431 contracts and Ethanol at 5,585 contracts. The crude oil position represents 2.2 times the combined positioning of refined products tracked.

Equity Indices:

Index markets show universally net long positioning but registered substantial weekly contractions. Nasdaq 100 holds 12,068 contracts, Russell 2000 shows 4,298 contracts, and Dow Jones maintains 1,047 contracts. All three indices declined between 8.48% and 65.13% this week, representing coordinated positioning reduction across equity derivatives.

Agricultural Commodities:

Grain markets display mixed positioning: Coffee C shows net long 18,364 contracts, while Corn registers net short -34,698 contracts and Cocoa shows net short -14,508 contracts.

Digital Assets:

Cryptocurrency futures show divergent positioning: Bitcoin holds net long 1,008 contracts while Micro Ethereum registers net short -3,196 contracts.

Cross-Sectional Market Insights

Cross-market comparison reveals several positioning patterns. The Treasury complex shows the most concentrated absolute positioning across all asset classes, with combined net short exposure exceeding 4.2 million contracts across three maturities. This concentration substantially outweighs positioning in any other sector tracked.

Currency markets split evenly between net long and net short positioning, with no dominant directional bias. Energy sector net long positioning (206,581 contracts combined) represents approximately 1.25 times the total metals complex positioning (226,524 contracts combined).

Of 41 markets tracked, 24 show net long positioning while 17 register net short positioning, indicating slight aggregate bias toward long exposure across large speculator categories.

Data Context Note

This report establishes the baseline measurement for ongoing COT positioning analysis. With limited historical data currently available, this analysis focuses on cross-sectional comparisons across markets rather than time-series trends. Future reports will incorporate historical context as the database builds sufficient observations for meaningful trend analysis. The current snapshot provides the foundational reference point for tracking subsequent positioning changes and developing pattern recognition across speculative positioning behavior.