COT Positioning Report: Week of February 10, 2026

Weekly positioning snapshot for educational purposes. Not financial advice.

Executive Summary

This report establishes the baseline positioning snapshot for the week of February 10, 2026, covering 41 futures markets across seven categories. The data shows the most significant percentage change occurred in 30Y Treasury (+99.32%), while the largest absolute position shifts occurred in the Treasury complex, with 10Y Treasury declining 11.46% to a net short position of -813,027 contracts. Across all markets tracked, 24 markets show net long positioning while 17 markets show net short positioning.

Top 5 Weekly Position Changes

Large speculator positioning showed the greatest volatility in these markets:

1. 10Y Treasury: -11.46% change, currently net short -813,027 contracts
2. 30Y Treasury: +99.32% change, currently net short -92 contracts (smallest absolute position in the Treasury complex)
3. Australian Dollar: +27.15% change, currently net long 33,209 contracts
4. 2Y Treasury: +4.3% change, currently net short -1,289,687 contracts
5. 5Y Treasury: +2.05% change, currently net short -2,114,764 contracts

The concentration of Treasury securities in the top weekly changes highlights significant repositioning activity across the yield curve.

Absolute Position Analysis

The largest net long positions this week are concentrated in currency and commodity markets. Euro FX leads all markets with 180,305 contracts net long, followed by Gold at 160,012 contracts and Soybeans at 146,334 contracts. Crude Oil WTI holds a substantial net long position of 117,814 contracts.

The short side shows overwhelming concentration in the Treasury complex. The 5Y Treasury represents the single largest net short position across all 41 markets at -2,114,764 contracts. The 2Y Treasury follows at -1,289,687 contracts, and the 10Y Treasury at -813,027 contracts. Outside of bonds, Sugar #11 shows the largest net short at -235,401 contracts, and Natural Gas at -171,865 contracts.

Category Breakdown

Bonds (4 markets): The Treasury complex shows uniform net short positioning across all four maturities tracked. The 5Y Treasury holds the largest absolute short position at -2.1 million contracts, representing concentrated bearish positioning on intermediate maturity debt. The 30Y Treasury, while also net short, shows the smallest absolute position at just -92 contracts.

FX (9 markets): Currency markets display mixed positioning with five markets net long and four markets net short. The Euro FX dominates with the largest absolute long position at 180,305 contracts. Mexican Peso (84,951) and Brazilian Real (31,643) show substantial net long positions. On the short side, Swiss Franc (-42,259), New Zealand Dollar (-34,919), British Pound (-25,810), and Japanese Yen (-19,106) are all net short. Canadian Dollar (13,276) and Australian Dollar (33,209) round out the net long positions.

Energy (5 markets): Energy markets show three net long and two net short positions. Crude Oil WTI leads the sector at 117,814 contracts net long, followed by Gasoline RBOB at 89,956 contracts. Heating Oil shows net long positioning at 19,452 contracts, while Ethanol registers 6,970 contracts net long. Natural Gas represents the largest short position in the sector at -171,865 contracts.

Metals (4 markets): All four metals markets tracked show net long positioning. Gold holds 160,012 contracts, Copper shows 45,873 contracts, Silver registers 22,955 contracts, and Platinum stands at 12,084 contracts. The sector shows uniform directional positioning with Gold representing 56% of total metals net long positioning.

Grains (12 markets): Agricultural markets show the most diverse positioning across categories, with seven markets net long and five markets net short. Soybeans leads with 146,334 contracts net long, followed by Live Cattle (85,756), Lean Hogs (82,895), and Soybean Oil (53,277). The soy complex overall shows coordinated net long positioning across Soybeans, Soybean Oil, and Soybean Meal (11,372). On the short side, Sugar #11 dominates at -235,401 contracts, followed by Wheat SRW (-71,258), Wheat HRW (-19,953), Cocoa (-18,946), and Corn (-18,330). The remaining markets—Coffee C (13,931) and Feeder Cattle (8,881)—show smaller net long positions.

Index (5 markets): Equity index positioning shows four markets net long and one market net short. Nasdaq 100 holds the largest net long position at 12,642 contracts, followed by Russell 2000 (7,061) and Dow Jones (1,433). The S&P 500 shows net short positioning at -100,714 contracts, creating a notable divergence with other major indices. VIX positioning stands at -65,088 contracts net short.

Crypto (2 markets): Digital asset markets split evenly with Bitcoin net long at 1,017 contracts and Micro Ethereum net short at -3,677 contracts.

Cross-Sectional Insights

The Treasury complex represents the most concentrated short positioning across all asset classes, with all four maturities net short and the 5Y position alone exceeding 2 million contracts. This positioning dwarfs short positions in all other categories combined.

Currency markets show no dominant directional bias, with the nine markets splitting 5 long to 4 short. The Euro FX long position (180,305) stands out as the largest single net long position in the FX category, exceeding the combined total of all net short currency positions.

Comparing positioning magnitude across asset classes: the Treasury short positioning (total: -4,216,570 contracts across all maturities) exceeds the combined net positioning of all FX markets, demonstrating the relative scale of bond market speculation versus currency markets.

Data Context Note

This report establishes the baseline week for ongoing COT position tracking. With only one week of data, no time-series comparisons or trend analysis is possible. Future reports will compare positioning changes against this baseline as historical context develops. The data represents a cross-sectional snapshot of large speculator positioning as of February 10, 2026.