COT Analysis Mar 3 – AUD & CAD Multi-Year Highs
Mar 3, 2026
Previous week's analysis highlighted Treasury curve divergence and Silver's positioning washout. This week, commodity currencies dominated the extremes list: Australian and Canadian Dollars both reached multi-year highs in net speculative positioning, while Natural Gas remained at the opposite end with the most extreme net short in the sample.
Methodology & Data Source
- Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Legacy Format)
- Analysis: Non-Commercial traders (large speculators — hedge funds, asset managers)
- Percentiles: Empirical ranking over 107 weeks | Full Methodology →
- 📥 Download this week's data (JSON)
- 📊 View Interactive Dashboard →
What Stood Out This Week
This week's standout finding was the Australian Dollar reaching the 99th percentile for net speculative positioning — the most crowded net long in the 107-week sample with a Z-score of +2.76. The build has been sustained across both 4-week (+151,921 contracts) and 13-week (+157,523 contracts) windows, indicating structural conviction rather than a tactical spike. Canadian Dollar followed closely at the 98th percentile, marking a synchronized move into extreme net long territory across commodity currencies.
Top 10 Extreme Positions
The following table shows the 10 most extreme positions relative to their 107-week history:
| Rank | Market | Net Position | Percentile | Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australian Dollar | 67,762 | 99th | +2.76 |
| 2 | Coffee C | 10,800 | 1st | -2.34 |
| 3 | Natural Gas | -206,422 | 1st | -2.75 |
| 4 | Canadian Dollar | 21,050 | 98th | +2.33 |
| 5 | Cocoa | -17,830 | 2nd | -2.32 |
| 6 | Ethanol | 8,944 | 98th | +1.51 |
| 7 | Sugar #11 | -245,034 | 2nd | -2.24 |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 | -2,603 | 3rd | -1.49 |
| 9 | Gasoline RBOB | 91,817 | 96th | +1.97 |
| 10 | Silver | 23,338 | 4th | -2.10 |
Extreme Positions Deep Dive
Australian Dollar (99th percentile, Z-score +2.76) represents the most concentrated net long crowding in the currency complex. Non-commercial net positions reached 67,762 contracts, representing 25.4% of open interest — a sizable crowding ratio that indicates meaningful speculative concentration on the long side. The build has been sustained across three months rather than a single-week event, with positioning now +113,494 contracts above the full-period average. Commercial hedgers hold -89,249 contracts net (-33.4% of OI), reflecting substantial producer or end-user short hedging against speculative longs.
Canadian Dollar (98th percentile, Z-score +2.33) followed a similar trajectory, with net positioning at 21,050 contracts representing 9.1% of open interest. The sustained accumulation pattern matches that of the Australian Dollar, though the crowding ratio is lower in absolute terms. Commercial net positioning stood at -24,056 contracts, consistent with normal hedger-speculator opposition.
Natural Gas (1st percentile, Z-score -2.75) remained at the opposite extreme with net speculative positioning at -206,422 contracts, representing -12.9% of open interest. This is a meaningful net short crowding condition, not an absence of exposure. The positioning has been sustained across both 4-week and 13-week windows, with the short build deepening by -75,005 contracts over the past month. Commercial hedgers held the offsetting net long position at +184,360 contracts (11.5% of OI).
Coffee C (1st percentile, Z-score -2.34) and Cocoa (2nd percentile, Z-score -2.32) both showed extreme net short positioning among soft commodities. Coffee net longs stood at just 10,800 contracts despite the low percentile rank — a position that is small in absolute terms but represents speculative exhaustion relative to the 107-week sample. Cocoa net positioning reached -17,830 contracts, -38,648 below the full-period average.
Silver (4th percentile, Z-score -2.10) extended the positioning washout observed last week, with net longs at 23,338 contracts representing just 20.6% of open interest. The sustained build over 13 weeks (-22,516 vs average) indicates this is not a tactical repositioning but a multi-month unwind. Gold (5th percentile, Z-score -1.72) showed a similar pattern, with net positioning at 160,145 contracts representing 39.1% of OI — still substantial in absolute terms but among the lowest readings in two years.
Sugar #11 (2nd percentile, Z-score -2.24) reached extreme net short territory at -245,034 contracts, joining the soft commodity complex washout. Nasdaq 100 (3rd percentile, Z-score -1.49) held net short positioning at -2,603 contracts, representing minimal speculative exposure at just -0.9% of open interest.
📍 Positioning Scenarios
Australian Dollar (FX — 99th percentile, Z-score +2.76)
- If price continues higher while positioning stays above the 95th percentile, then the sustained build pattern (consistent across 4-week and 13-week windows) may persist for several more weeks — though within this 107-week sample, readings beyond Z-score +3.0 have been uncommon.
- If price stalls or reverses while the 25.4% crowding ratio remains elevated, then this may be consistent with a late-cycle crowding condition where concentrated long positioning becomes vulnerable to even minor disappointment — similar to configurations that have sometimes preceded rapid unwinds in past FX cycles.
- If positioning retraces toward the 75th percentile over 2–3 weeks without a corresponding price breakdown, then the repositioning may reflect tactical profit-taking by a subset of participants rather than a fundamental shift in macro views on commodity currencies.
Natural Gas (Energy — 1st percentile, Z-score -2.75)
- If price continues lower while net short positioning deepens beyond -12.9% of OI, then the sustained short build (consistent across 4-week and 13-week windows) may reflect entrenched structural views on supply/weather dynamics — though the 1st percentile rank indicates limited room for further speculative selling relative to recent history.
- If price stabilises or reverses higher while positioning remains at the 1st percentile, then this may be consistent with a late-stage short crowding condition where commercial long hedging (+11.5% of OI) offsets speculative shorts and unwind risk rises — similar to patterns that have sometimes coincided with short-covering events in past energy market cycles.
- If positioning rapidly unwinds toward median over 3–4 weeks while price remains range-bound, then the repositioning may reflect rolling short exposure or tactical exits rather than a shift in underlying supply/demand views.
Silver (Metals — 4th percentile, Z-score -2.10)
- If price declines further while positioning stays below the 10th percentile, then the sustained unwind over 13 weeks (-22,516 vs average) may continue for several more weeks — though the 4th percentile rank indicates speculative positioning is already washed out relative to the 107-week sample.
- If price stabilises or turns higher while the 20.6% crowding ratio remains at current low levels, then this may be consistent with selling exhaustion — a configuration that has sometimes preceded stabilisation phases in past precious metals cycles, though timing cannot be determined from positioning data alone.
- If positioning rapidly rebuilds toward the 25th percentile over 2–3 weeks during a price rally, then the speed of re-entry may indicate tactical repositioning by momentum followers rather than structural shifts in precious metals views among hedge funds.
Top Weekly Changes
The five largest absolute changes versus moving averages appeared in Treasury markets, though most remained near median percentiles. 10Y Treasury net short positioning moved +23,356 contracts versus the 4-week average but -122,279 versus the 13-week window, reaching the 77th percentile. 2Y Treasury net shorts deepened by -340,891 contracts versus the 4-week average, landing at the 17th percentile — a notable move but not an extreme reading.
Category Breakdown
FX: Australian Dollar (99th percentile) and Canadian Dollar (98th percentile) dominated the extremes list with sustained multi-week builds into net long territory. Euro FX reached the 91st percentile, while Brazilian Real stood at the 77th. British Pound positioned at the opposite end (5th percentile), marking a split between commodity and non-commodity currency positioning. The remaining markets clustered near median: Japanese Yen (34th), Swiss Franc (19th), New Zealand Dollar (32nd), Mexican Peso (63rd).
Metals: Silver (4th percentile) and Gold (5th percentile) both held extreme net short or washed-out positioning, with Silver's crowding ratio at 20.6% of OI and Gold's at 39.1% — still substantial in absolute terms but among the lowest readings in the 107-week sample. Copper positioned at the 85th percentile, while Platinum remained near median (28th).
Energy: Natural Gas (1st percentile) anchored the extreme short end with net positioning at -206,422 contracts (-12.9% of OI). Ethanol positioned at the opposite extreme (98th percentile) with net longs at 8,944 contracts (18.5% of OI). Gasoline RBOB reached the 96th percentile. Heating Oil (71st) and Crude Oil WTI (44th) remained near median.
Grains: Wheat HRW reached the 96th percentile and triggered the alignment signal (see below). Cocoa (2nd percentile) and Coffee C (1st percentile) both showed extreme net short or washed-out positioning within the soft commodity complex. Sugar #11 (2nd percentile) joined the washout. Soybeans (96th) and Soybean Oil (94th) positioned at elevated net long percentiles, while Soybean Meal reached the 89th. Corn (73rd), Wheat SRW (83rd), Lean Hogs (74th), Feeder Cattle (45th), and Live Cattle (47th) remained near median.
Index: Nasdaq 100 (3rd percentile) and Dow Jones (18th percentile) both held net short positioning with minimal crowding ratios (-0.9% and -3.8% of OI respectively). S&P 500 positioned at the 18th percentile. Russell 2000 (65th) and VIX (34th) remained near median.
Bonds: 30Y Treasury reached the 94th percentile with net positioning at 20,265 contracts (1.1% of OI), while 2Y Treasury positioned at the opposite end (17th percentile) with net shorts at -1,338,541 contracts (-29.8% of OI). The curve divergence persisted from last week. 10Y Treasury stood at the 77th percentile, 5Y at the 42nd.
Crypto: Bitcoin reached the 90th percentile with net positioning at 1,011 contracts (5% of OI). Micro Ethereum remained near median (51st).
⚡ Alignment Signal
One market showed the alignment signal this week: Wheat HRW (Grains) registered both large speculators and commercials net long, leaving small speculators holding the entire net short position. Large speculator net positioning stood at +1,813 contracts (0.6% of OI), while commercial net positioning reached +2,491 contracts (0.9% of OI). Because futures markets are zero-sum, when two groups align on one side, the third group holds 100% of the other side.
This configuration coincided with the 96th percentile for net speculative positioning — an amplified signal where structural alignment meets extreme crowding. Historically, when large speculators and commercials have aligned on the same side at elevated percentiles, small speculator positions have sometimes coincided with periods of elevated positioning volatility — though the timing and magnitude cannot be determined from positioning data alone. This is a positioning configuration flag, not a directional indicator.
📍 Key Questions for Next Week
- Will AUD positioning extend beyond Z-score +3.0, or does the 99th percentile mark a ceiling within this sample?
- Will Natural Gas net shorts deepen further from the 1st percentile, or does -12.9% of OI represent peak short crowding?
- Does the Wheat HRW alignment signal persist into next week's report, or does the configuration unwind rapidly?
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Check back next Friday for the latest COT report analysis covering the week ending March 10, 2026.
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