COT Mar 10 – FX Extremes & Treasury Divergence
Mar 10, 2026
This week's CFTC positioning data shows hedge funds holding near-record net long positions in Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar futures, while British Pound positioning collapsed to a 2-year low — creating the widest cross-currency positioning spread observed in this sample.
Last week, we observed positioning shifts across equity index and commodity futures. This week, the story shifted decisively to foreign exchange markets, where three major currencies reached percentile extremes simultaneously. Australian Dollar net longs climbed to the 99th percentile over two years (97th over 10 years), Canadian Dollar also hit the 99th percentile (93rd over 10 years), while British Pound positioning sank to the 1st percentile (5th over 10 years). The divergence between commodity currencies and sterling represents one of the widest cross-currency positioning gaps in the dataset.
Methodology & Data Source
- Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Legacy Format)
- Analysis: Non-Commercial traders (large speculators — hedge funds, asset managers)
- Percentiles: Dual window — 2-year (104 weeks) primary + 10-year (520 weeks) structural context | Full Methodology →
- 📥 Download this week's data (JSON)
- 📊 View Interactive Dashboard →
What Stood Out This Week
The standout finding was the clustering of FX extremes: three major currency markets simultaneously reached 95th+ or 5th- percentile positioning, with Canadian Dollar leading at a Z-score of +2.67 (99th percentile). Non-commercial net longs in the Canadian Dollar represent 12.5% of total open interest, indicating concentrated crowding in what is typically a lower-liquidity futures market. The British Pound moved in the opposite direction, with net positioning falling to the 1st percentile (Z-score: -2.01) and non-commercial traders holding net shorts equivalent to 26.7% of open interest.
📊 Top 10 Extreme Positions
The following table shows the 10 most extreme positions relative to their 104-week history:
| Rank | Market | Net Position | 2Y Percentile | 10Y Percentile | Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canadian Dollar | +36,159 | 99th | 93rd | +2.67 |
| 2 | British Pound | -84,197 | 1st | 5th | -2.01 |
| 3 | Cocoa | -20,850 | 1st | 5th | -2.42 |
| 4 | Australian Dollar | +54,197 | 99th | 97th | +2.31 |
| 5 | Silver | +24,578 | 5th | 29th | -2.15 |
| 6 | Natural Gas | -186,856 | 3rd | 5th | -2.08 |
| 7 | 30Y Treasury | +42,037 | 97th | 88th | +2.04 |
| 8 | Soybeans | +230,268 | 97th | 93rd | +2.06 |
| 9 | Soybean Oil | +101,751 | 99th | 87th | +1.90 |
| 10 | Wheat (HRW) | +6,048 | 99th | 54th | +1.74 |
Extreme Positions Deep Dive
Canadian Dollar reached the 99th percentile over two years (93rd over 10 years), with net longs of 36,159 contracts representing a Z-score of +2.67. This is extreme positioning across both the 2-year and 10-year windows, indicating structural conviction rather than a short-term tactical position. The build has been sustained: positioning is +84,171 contracts above the 4-week average and +110,203 above the 13-week average. Non-commercial net longs account for 12.5% of open interest, a meaningful concentration in a market where typical crowding levels stay below 10%.
Australian Dollar mirrors the Canadian Dollar pattern, sitting at the 99th percentile over two years (97th over 10 years) with net longs of 54,197 contracts (Z-score: +2.31). The positioning build has been sustained across both 4-week (+156,201) and 13-week (+135,158) comparisons. Non-commercial crowding stands at 17.2% of open interest, higher than CAD and indicating more concentrated speculative positioning. Extreme positioning across both windows confirms this is not a recent anomaly but a structural shift in hedge-fund positioning toward the Aussie.
British Pound sits at the opposite extreme: 1st percentile over two years (5th over 10 years), with net shorts of -84,197 contracts (Z-score: -2.01). Non-commercial traders are net short by an amount equal to 26.7% of open interest, the highest short crowding ratio among major FX pairs this week. The positioning build has been sustained, with the current level sitting -90,894 contracts below the 4-week average and -90,149 below the 13-week average. This is a crowded net short, not a washed-out position.
Natural Gas dropped to the 3rd percentile over two years (5th over 10 years), with net shorts of -186,856 contracts (Z-score: -2.08). Non-commercial net shorts represent -11.9% of open interest. The build has been sustained: positioning is -69,982 contracts below the 4-week average and -71,285 below the 13-week average. This reflects speculative conviction that gas prices will fall further, with commercial traders on the opposite side (+164,172 net long, or +10.5% of open interest).
30Y Treasury climbed to the 97th percentile over two years (88th over 10 years), with net longs of 42,037 contracts (Z-score: +2.04). Non-commercial crowding sits at just 2.3% of open interest, relatively light compared to FX extremes. The positioning build has been sustained: +85,517 above the 4-week average and +59,248 above the 13-week average. Meanwhile, commercials hold net shorts of -179,711 contracts (-9.8% of open interest), consistent with typical hedging flows.
Cocoa fell to the 1st percentile over two years (5th over 10 years), with net shorts of -20,850 contracts (Z-score: -2.42). Non-commercial positioning is net short by -19.1% of open interest, among the highest short crowding ratios across all markets tracked. The build has been sustained across both 4-week and 13-week averages. This is a heavily crowded net short in a soft commodity market.
Soybean Oil reached the 99th percentile over two years (87th over 10 years), with net longs of 101,751 contracts (Z-score: +1.90). Extreme within the recent 2-year sample, but mid-to-high range in a longer structural context — suggesting the current positioning level has precedent in earlier cycles. Non-commercial crowding stands at 34.1% of open interest, indicating heavy speculative concentration.
Soybeans climbed to the 97th percentile over two years (93rd over 10 years), with net longs of 230,268 contracts (Z-score: +2.06). Extreme positioning across both windows. Non-commercial net longs represent 15% of open interest. The build has been sustained, with positioning +211,659 above the 4-week average and +204,822 above the 13-week average.
📍 "So What?" — Positioning Scenarios
Canadian Dollar (FX — 99th percentile, Z-score: +2.67)
- If price continues higher while positioning holds at this extreme, then the sustained build (consistent across 4 and 13 weeks) may persist — though within this 104-week sample, readings beyond Z-score +3.0 have been uncommon.
- If price stalls or reverses while net long positioning stays elevated, then this may be consistent with a late-cycle crowding condition where unwind risk rises, particularly given the 12.5% crowding ratio — a meaningful concentration in a typically lower-liquidity market.
- If positioning rapidly retraces toward median over 2–3 weeks without a corresponding price reversal, then the repositioning may reflect tactical profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in the CAD view.
Silver (Metals — 5th percentile, Z-score: -2.15)
- If price continues lower while net long positioning stays near this 2-year low, then this may be consistent with a late-stage washout where speculative longs have been exhausted — though the 5th percentile is not yet a complete washout (1st percentile would mark that threshold).
- If price stabilises or reverses higher while positioning remains at the 5th percentile, then this may indicate selling exhaustion, particularly if commercial net shorts (-36% of open interest) begin to unwind.
- If positioning drops further toward the 1st percentile while price grinds sideways, then this may reflect additional long liquidation in the absence of a bullish catalyst, with the sustained build pattern suggesting conviction rather than a tactical flush.
Natural Gas (Energy — 3rd percentile, Z-score: -2.08)
- If price continues lower while net short positioning stays near the 3rd percentile, then the sustained build (-11.9% of open interest net short) suggests structural conviction that supply conditions remain bearish — though extreme shorts can persist for extended periods if weather or production catalysts don't materialise.
- If price reverses higher while positioning remains at this extreme net short, then this may be consistent with a short squeeze condition, particularly given the sustained build pattern (both 4-week and 13-week deviations similar in magnitude).
- If positioning rapidly covers toward median over 2–3 weeks without a sharp price spike, then the unwind may reflect reduced conviction in the bearish thesis rather than a forced liquidation event.
Top Weekly Changes
The largest absolute positioning changes this week occurred in Treasury futures and the Australian Dollar. 10Y Treasury net shorts increased by 22,407 contracts vs the 4-week average, though the net position remains deeply short at -534,883 contracts (86th percentile over two years). Australian Dollar net longs surged by +156,201 contracts vs the 4-week average, pushing the market to the 99th percentile. 5Y Treasury net shorts deepened by -710,092 contracts vs the 4-week average, keeping positioning at the 50th percentile (neutral).
Category Breakdown
FX: Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar both reached the 99th percentile over two years, with Z-scores above +2.3 and crowding ratios of 12.5% and 17.2% of open interest respectively. British Pound moved to the opposite extreme, sitting at the 1st percentile (5th over 10 years) with net shorts of -84,197 contracts and a crowding ratio of -26.7% of open interest. The remaining 8 markets tracked are near median: Japanese Yen (25th percentile), US Dollar Index (19th), Euro FX (68th), Swiss Franc (24th), New Zealand Dollar (29th), Mexican Peso (65th), Brazilian Real (83rd).
Metals: Silver dropped to the 5th percentile over two years (29th over 10 years), with net longs of 24,578 contracts representing a Z-score of -2.15. Non-commercial crowding sits at 21.3% of open interest, while commercials hold net shorts equivalent to -36% of open interest. Gold similarly sits at the 6th percentile over two years (32nd over 10 years), with net longs of 163,132 contracts (Z-score: -1.74) and a crowding ratio of 39.4% of open interest. The remaining 2 markets tracked are near median: Copper (75th percentile), Platinum (30th).
Energy: Natural Gas reached the 3rd percentile over two years (5th over 10 years), with net shorts of -186,856 contracts (Z-score: -2.08) and a crowding ratio of -11.9% of open interest. Commercials hold the opposite side with net longs of +164,172 contracts (+10.5% of open interest). Ethanol climbed to the 95th percentile (86th over 10 years) with net longs of 8,833 contracts and a crowding ratio of 20.2% of open interest. The remaining 3 markets tracked are near median: Gasoline RBOB (83rd percentile), Crude Oil WTI (73rd), Heating Oil (53rd).
Grains: Wheat (HRW) surged to the 99th percentile over two years (54th over 10 years), with net longs of 6,048 contracts (Z-score: +1.74). Extreme within the recent 2-year sample, but mid-range in a longer structural context — suggesting the current positioning level has precedent in earlier cycles. Corn sits at the 89th percentile (71st over 10 years) with net longs of 257,781 contracts and a crowding ratio of 15% of open interest. The remaining 11 markets tracked include: Soybean Oil (99th percentile), Soybean Meal (96th), Soybeans (97th), Cotton (73rd), Wheat SRW (77th), Lean Hogs (75th), Live Cattle (38th), Feeder Cattle (44th), Coffee C (4th), Cocoa (1st), Sugar #11 (5th).
Bonds: 30Y Treasury reached the 97th percentile over two years (88th over 10 years), with net longs of 42,037 contracts and a crowding ratio of just 2.3% of open interest. 10Y Treasury sits at the 86th percentile (31st over 10 years), with net shorts of -534,883 contracts and a crowding ratio of -10% of open interest. The curve positioning shows meaningful divergence: long-end net long, mid-curve net short. The remaining 2 markets tracked are near median: 2Y Treasury (19th percentile), 5Y Treasury (50th).
Crypto: Bitcoin climbed to the 95th percentile over two years (97th over 10 years), with net longs of 1,302 contracts (Z-score: +1.71) and a crowding ratio of 6.2% of open interest. Extreme positioning across both windows. Micro Ethereum sits near median at the 41st percentile.
📍 Key Questions for Next Week
- Will CAD positioning extend beyond Z-score +3.0, or does the 99th percentile mark a ceiling within this sample?
- Does the GBP net short (1st percentile, -26.7% OI crowding) continue building, or does positioning stabilise near current levels?
- Will Natural Gas shorts deepen further toward the 1st percentile, or does the 3rd percentile mark a floor for speculative conviction?
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Check back next Friday for the latest COT report analysis covering the week ending March 17, 2026.
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